Energy Policy

Side note: Between the economic news, spending too  much time on The Oil Drum, and listening to David Copperfield on audiobook as I walk home from work each night, things have gotten a bit gloomy.  If you have any suggested books, movies, or websites that are more cheerful let me know (or if Copperfield's situation improves as I get in to the book, let me know -- just don't give me too much data to spoil the story)

If you are tired of the "Drill, Baby, Drill" approach to energy policy that has been offered up recently, I want to pass on two alternative viewpoints.

The first is also highly political.  Just as "Drill, Baby, Drill" originated from the Republican convention this year, Montana governor, Brian Schweitzer, engaged the Democratic convention this year.  YouTube has the entire speech, if you would like to hear it (as it is the entire speech it is highly political, so viewer be warned).  Notice that he doesn't call for us to stop drilling completely -- they have increased the amount of energy extraction in Montana.  (and yes, I hate his use of the term energy independence)

Those looking for something less political might want to turn to the good folks at Google.  Yes, the company that helped us find our way through the Internet now has their own energy plan for the US.

I am glad I don't have to write the energy policy for the US.  But I know that we need one.  We waited too long to deal with Wall St.  We can't afford to wait too late to deal with this issue.

Energy Policy/Drilling Policy

I spend a lot of my time saying don't drill here, don't drill there, don't drill yet, save it for when we really need it.

But what should our policy be?  We need a general plan so that we can be prepared for when our energy situation gets out of hand.   Setting up oil rigs is energy intensive in itself.  And if wait too late, we might not have the resources to get additional drilling up and running.

I still think it is too early to get started.  I don't want to see more oil wasted away on SUVs and suburban sprawl.  But how long would it take to get something up and running?  If it takes 10 years to get something up and running and we are currently 15 years away from when things will really get bad, then we can wait a few more years.

The problem is that I have no clue on either of those, I just randomly chose those two numbers.  ASPO (The Association for the Study if Peak Oil), has a much better sense of these numbers, but no one knows for sure.  They may not know for sure, but they know enough to scare me.

Something's Got to Give

Gasoline shortages are here.  We are lucky as these are only temporary shortages due to refinery shut downs from the hurricanes.  But they will be good to learn from when shortages become more frequent, more wide spread, and longer.

NBC did a 2 minute piece on the gas shortage on the Nightly News.  The  comment from one driver really spoke to me.  "Something's got to give."

I think she is right.  But I don't think she would like my answer.  I think that what is going to have to give our our lifestyles and our attitudes.  We can't keep spreading out into sprawlville.  We need to get used to our food arriving from local sources, and paying more for it (and wishing we hadn't paved over the best farmland acres to plop down ticky tacky houses).   I suspect there will be some tough times ahead.

Missed Opportunity

NBC covered something on Nightly News tonight that Peak Oil folks have been discussing for a while -- our infrastructure is crumbling.  Actually, a friend of mine (I have no idea if she is part of the Peak Oil crowd or not) was the first to fill me in years ago.

The issue goes beyond roads and bridges.  It is also water & sewer, electrical grid, schools, the list goes on.

But for driving, let's make this clear, bumpy roads can lead to car damage (it certainly leads to wear and tear) -- it makes owning and operating a car more expensive.

How could we have avoided this?  What was our missed opportunity?  We could have taxed ourselves.  By raising the gas tax years ago we would have been putting that money into our own coffers instead of into the coffers of countries that don't really care for us.  At $2/gallon, adding say a $0.20/gallon tax, people would have had a fit and politicians heads would have rolled.  But here we are clearly marching towards $5/gallon gas, and the roads are still crowded. 

Taxing ourselves would have gotten us away from the disaster of SUVs more quickly as well (although at something closer to a $2/gallon gas tax than a $0.20/gallon gas tax).  The big three auto makers would never admit it, but a gradual and planned increase in the price of gas via a gas tax would have allowed them to transition away from the SUV market in a more orderly format, which would have been great for their economy, as well as ours.  It takes a lot of time to retool a plant -- and right now we really need plants that can turn out more busses (and rail cars).

-- Andy

P.S. A road near my house was recently repaved, and they made it worse than it was before.  So increased cost does not (necessarily) equate to better quality.

P.P.S. H St (along with a number of other DC streets) is notorious for being ripped up and fixed, only to be ripped up again.  This is done as the utility companies have no sense of coordination with each other.  It is a major detriment to all involved.  If the cot of repaving is increasingly expensive, would this push them to be better at coordinating.

Oilympics

There are increasing signs that China is hoarding oil/petrol in preparation for the Olympics. They do not want anything to spoil their moment in the sun, and long lines at the gas station are one cloud they can avoid.

I suspect that the completion of the Olympics, as well as the end of the Summer driving season will equate to falling oil and gas prices.

What you don't want to hear from me is that falling prices might only mean falling back to what the prices currently stand. The reduction of hording by China and the end of Summer driving will cut demand, but will not help increase supply. Cantarell and North Sea will continue to decline and I remain skeptical that Saudi Arabia can really do much of anything

Fast Car

The other day I heard a great song from my past: Fast Car by Tracy Chapman (video).  It was released in 1988, but came back in popularity again while I was in college.

It is a depressing song, looking at how bad situations can perpetuate; the vicious cycle of poverty.

Also depressing is how much the narrator of the song sees the car as the solution.  The car can take her away from her drunken father and her run down life and into some fantasy life just across the border.  The car can provide entertainment for cruising, even while living in the shelter.  The car can take away the good-for-nothing spouse.  And maybe worse (or maybe I am reading too much into it), the car relates to the feeling of self-actualization:

I had a feeling that I belonged
I had a feeling I could be someone, be someone, be someone

How will the future generations see this song?  I suspect it will be seen as a sign of the times it was written in.  The deception of fixing problems by running away is just as great as the deception that the car can cure the ills.  Maybe the concept that the poor could own and operate a car will even seem absurd, just as today the it seems absurd that at one time it was doctors that had cars so that they could drive to patients (because their patients didn't have  cars to drive and see them).

Leave tonight or live and die this way

Seems fairly bleak if the option to leave is removed from the equation.

-- Andy

Warren Brown Gets it right, as usual

I am not an expert on the issues of gasoline. It might help is I were to post more, force me to better keep track of the facts and stats. But that is neither here nor there.

On a day when many Americans watch cars going around in circles, for 1,100 miles averaging around 5 mpg (I believe, needs more fact checking)

It was interesting to see that we finally surpassed the better measure of highest gas prices for the US -- adjusted for inflation. I heard (but do not have the details to back this up) that the income of Americans has increased faster than inflation, which means that gasoline prices are still not at record levels in terms of impact on our wallets.

Anyway, I am writing to point out Warren Brown's latest article A Gas Crisis 30 Years in the Making. While Americans are complaining about high gasoline prices, "U.S. consumers are a long way from dealing with the truth." It is always easier to place the blame on someone else (in this case: the oil companies, the car companies, the government) but it often better to accept that we ourselves need to correct the mistake.

Pogo got it right, too.

-- Andy

(Notice how I used the word gasoline, instead of gas. That is because I would not want to confuse you by using an abbreviation. After all the product I am referencing is a liquid at STP)

Quote of the Day

Actually, earlier in the week, but it is new to me. From an online discussion hosted by The Washington Post

And what about people, like me, who find it "unconscionable" how cheap gas STILL is?

The person who wrote this was from Texas (I had a preconceived notion that no one in the state of Texas thought that way)

Cheap Gasoline

It seems like every day on the news they show someone filling up their not-so-fuel-efficient car complaining about how horrible it is that gas prices are so unacceptably high*.

Yet they never show a chart like this which shows the price in Europe is at least double.

Why not put it in perspective?

-- Andy

*Today they actually showed some guy who commutes an hour and a half each way in his car. I bet he wins the good parenting award for that!

Global Warming/Peak Oil: What Are the Best Options?

So there are concerns about Peak Oil (PO) and Global Warming (GW).

But what are the best answers.

On Earth Day, one thing we look at are the "simple" and "not-so-simple" things we can do to make the Earth a better place.

There was a great post on The Oil Drum That looked at suggestions (specific post here).

The suggestions are great, I urge you to read it.

But what are your suggestions?